Titan Wealth International Weekly Investment Update

Investors grew more cautious as central banks signalled that inflation risks remain elevated, reinforcing the view that interest rates may stay higher for longer across major economies.

What Drove Markets This Week

The major US indexes fell roughly 2% across the board, extending what has now become the longest losing streak so far this year. The S&P 500 is now approximately 5% below its year-to-date starting point and almost 7% off its all-time high set in late January.

The Nasdaq is within touching distance of official correction territory, sitting around 9.6% below its October 2025 peak. Early-week optimism — driven by intermittent signals from President Trump that a diplomatic resolution might be possible — gave way to fresh pressure as those signals faded.

The energy sector remained the standout exception, with oil stocks continuing to benefit from elevated crude prices.

A notable development this week was the sharp pullback in gold, which fell nearly 10% and dropped for a third consecutive week. Gold futures finished around $4,500 per ounce, a significant retreat from the record high of above $5,500 set in late January.

This appears to reflect profit-taking and some easing of the most extreme safe-haven demand rather than any fundamental shift in the outlook.

The Fed and a Coordinated Global Pause

The Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, keeping the target range at 3.50–3.75%, as widely expected.

The Fed’s updated forecasts continued to pencil in one rate cut for 2026, but the tone from Chair Jerome Powell was notably cautious.

He highlighted heightened uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict and its potential to drive inflation expectations higher, reinforcing the sense that the Fed will not be rushing to ease policy in the current environment.

Crucially, the Fed was not alone. Central banks in Japan, the UK, Sweden, and Switzerland also all kept rates on hold at their meetings this week.

The message from policymakers globally is consistent: the energy shock from the Iran conflict has complicated the path back toward lower rates, and patience is now the prevailing posture.

Markets have adjusted accordingly, with futures pricing in rates remaining at or near current levels for most of 2026.

Inflation Risks Continue to Build

Alongside the Fed meeting, a sharp rise in producer prices added to inflation concerns. The Producer Price Index rose 0.7% month-on-month in February — well above the 0.3% consensus estimate — bringing the annual rate to 3.4%.

This kind of upstream price pressure typically feeds through to consumers over subsequent months, suggesting that headline inflation is likely to move higher before it moves lower.

With the Fed’s preferred core PCE measure already at 3.1%, policymakers are in an increasingly difficult position as they weigh the growth slowdown against the renewed inflation threat.

Bond markets have responded with yields moving sharply higher for the third week running. The 10-year US Treasury yield closed Friday at 4.39% — its highest level in around eight months — reflecting the market’s repricing of inflation risk and the reduced likelihood of near-term rate cuts.